Knitting Together Validated Exoplanets from the Roman GBTDS With Transit Timing Variations
| Program ID | 19091 |
|---|---|
| Science Category | Exoplanets & Exoplanet Formation |
| Program Type | Analysis |
| Category | Medium |
| Principal Investigator | Michael Greklek-McKeon |
| PI Institution | Carnegie Earth and Planets Laboratory |
| Co-Investigators |
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| Abstract | The Roman Space Telescope's Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey (GBTDS) will identify 60,000–200,000 transiting exoplanet candidates, more than an order of magnitude beyond the currently known sample, but validating the majority of these planets will be extremely challenging with traditional methods (radial velocities, transit chromaticity checks, statistical tools) due to the crowded fields and faint host stars. To fully leverage Roman’s unparalleled capabilities for planet discovery, we need a method that can confirm planet candidates based on Roman data alone, without requiring follow-up. We propose to use transit timing variations (TTVs) to confirm up to 15% of the overall GBTDS transiting planet candidate yield through the detection of anti-correlated TTV signatures, which indicate planetary mass objects that are gravitationally interacting and bound to one host star. By leveraging the GBTDS's high cadence and long time baseline, we will confirm > 5000 new transiting exoplanets -- nearly doubling the total current exoplanet census -- within Cycle 1 alone using data from the first three GBTDS seasons. Our program will also develop and publicly release TTV extraction and inversion pipelines, including a novel grid of n-body TTV models spanning a wide range of planet mass ratios, period ratios, and eccentricity vectors that can be used to precisely recover planet masses and bulk densities at a fraction of the computational cost of traditional methods. These pipelines will lay the foundation for the discovery of > 30,000 additional transiting exoplanets with TTVs over the full Roman prime mission. The resulting planet population from our Cycle 1 program and beyond will enable groundbreaking new studies on planet formation, evolution, and demographics across galactic space and time. |